I didn't do very well in the last world title fight I looked at (going 0/2 in the Robert Stieglitz v Henry Weber fight) so hopefully this will be a bit more successful. This fight sees the WBA's "Interim" and "Regular" Super Bantamweight champions meeting in a bout that will be shown on ShoBox in the US and Premier Sports in the UK. Both fighters come into the bout with unbeaten records with Ramos holding a ledger of 20-0 (11) and Rigondeaux being 8-0 (6) though of course Rigondeaux has had over 400 amateur bouts and is a 2 time Olympic Gold Medal winner.
Whilst on paper Ramos doesn't look much like a puncher his power isn't actually that bad and with KO's over Akifumi Shimoda (KO7) and Heriberto Ruiz (KO2) in 2 of his last 3 bouts he can genuinely hit. It's worth noting he was the first man to stop Shimoda and is one of only 5 men to stop Ruiz (a list that includes Rafael Marquez, Alejandro Valdez, Jackson Asiku and Gary Russell Jr). Oddly Rigondeaux probably doesn't have the power to match his record having mainly stopped lower tier fighters or significantly lesser skilled fighters such as Willie Casey. Despite both of these facts I wouldn't flat out rule out a stoppage at some point due to a TKO if Rigondeaux decides to make a point.
On a skill level we've seen Ramos out boxed before, Shimoda was controlling the American with his jab and looked completely out of his depth for most of the fight. When it comes to Rigondeaux he has an amazing jab when he uses it, he's incredibly patient and massively skilled, he judges distances perfectly and has some wonderful timing that he uses fantastically to counter. Ramos will know that if he leaves himself open he will be caught by a sharp counter left hand and hurt so will likely want to keep the pace slow to not leave himself open, for me this will be favouring Rigondeaux almost as much as opening up.
Whilst I wouldn't rule out the fight not going 12 rounds I do tend to favour that a stoppage will be later in the fight if at all. Rigondeaux scoring a stoppage in rounds 7-9 and 10-12 can be "dutched" at 4/1 (both are 8/1 with Bet365) which looks pretty good if you ask me and certainly beats the evens offered on Rigondeaux winning by TKO/KO or DQ at any point (11/10 with Betfred).
The real bet for me is the 2/5 (Betfred and Tote Sport) on Rigondeaux winning outright as I cannot see anyway for Ramos to win. Whilst Rigondeaux didn't look great in beating Ricardo Cordoba it's unfair to Cordoba to put Ramos up there with him as Cordoba had more experience, was taller as well as being a tricky and hard hitting southpaw. For me the fight to look at to show how this bout will be is the Shimoda fight where Ramos was being clearly beaten before landing one of the most important punches of 2011.
A full preview of this bout can be read here on Boxing World Title Fights.
Bets-
Outright-Rigondeaux 2/5 (Betfred and Tote Sport)
Others-Rigondeaux to win in rounds 7-9 and 10-12 8/1 on each (4/1 if Dutched)
Showing posts with label Boxing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Boxing. Show all posts
Wednesday, 18 January 2012
Monday, 9 January 2012
January 14th Robert Stieglitz v Henry Weber
The first world title fight of the year sees the WBO Super Middleweight champion Robert Stieglitz defending his title against little known Henry Weber. I previewed this fight for the sister site Boxing World Title Fight's, but now comes the gambling tips for the bout, which are sadly pretty difficult due to the fact that on paper the fight is a complete mismatch that should make any champion blush.
30 year old Stiegltiz (40-2, 23) comes to the bout as an unbackable favourite priced around 1/20 and with good reason because he is experienced, he's a world champion and despite the fact he's often ignored when we talk about the Super Middleweight elite he is genuinely very good. In fact looking at various rankings Stiegltiz is universally accepted as a top 10 Super Middleweight (Ring Magazine and Boxrec have him at #4 whilst Fightnews have him at #5) and he has faced a decent caliber of opponents with wins over Alejandro Berrio (TKO11), Karoly Balzsay (TKO11), Eduard Gutknecht (UD12), Enrique Ornelas (UD12) and Khoren Gevor (DQ10) and losses only coming to Berrio (LTKO3) and Librado Andrade (LTKO8).
When you then look at the record of the unbeaten challenger Henry Weber (15-0-1, 3) you notice a lot of things. Firstly is the fact Weber was very lucky to win his last fight when he took a controversial split decision over Stjepan Bozic then you notice that Bozic is the only "known" fighter on Weber's record. Thing's are worrying when the best opponent is Bozic and he almost beats you but it gets worse for the challenger. Firstly of course he's taking a big step up in class but this will also be the first time Weber will be scheduled for a fight that goes beyond 8 rounds. Whilst Weber is 5-0 (0) in fights that have gone 8 rounds so far in his career he has been lucky and could very easily have had 3 losses on his record from those fights, so it's fair to imagine a 12 round bout will be a whole new experience to him.
Despite the fact that on paper neither guy is a real puncher with 26 knock out wins between them in 58 fights it's the distance that makes me interested in the very few value bets on the bout as Ladbrokes are offering 9/20 on the bout not going the full distance. Oddly this is priced better than Stieglitz by DQ/TKO/KO which is 4/9 also at Ladbrokes. For a bit more value however I rather like the price on under 10.5 rounds, again with Ladbrokes, this is priced at 8/11. Whilst Stieglitz isn't a monster puncher he works very hard through his bouts and I can't help but feel he will over-whelm his inexperienced opponent at some point in the point, probably a little earlier than round 8 in all honesty, but I'll stick with what I have.
Bets-
Outright-Avoid (Odds are untouchable)
Others-fight to go less than 10.5 rounds 8/11 (Ladbrokes) and fight not to go the distance 9/20 (Ladbrokes)
30 year old Stiegltiz (40-2, 23) comes to the bout as an unbackable favourite priced around 1/20 and with good reason because he is experienced, he's a world champion and despite the fact he's often ignored when we talk about the Super Middleweight elite he is genuinely very good. In fact looking at various rankings Stiegltiz is universally accepted as a top 10 Super Middleweight (Ring Magazine and Boxrec have him at #4 whilst Fightnews have him at #5) and he has faced a decent caliber of opponents with wins over Alejandro Berrio (TKO11), Karoly Balzsay (TKO11), Eduard Gutknecht (UD12), Enrique Ornelas (UD12) and Khoren Gevor (DQ10) and losses only coming to Berrio (LTKO3) and Librado Andrade (LTKO8).
When you then look at the record of the unbeaten challenger Henry Weber (15-0-1, 3) you notice a lot of things. Firstly is the fact Weber was very lucky to win his last fight when he took a controversial split decision over Stjepan Bozic then you notice that Bozic is the only "known" fighter on Weber's record. Thing's are worrying when the best opponent is Bozic and he almost beats you but it gets worse for the challenger. Firstly of course he's taking a big step up in class but this will also be the first time Weber will be scheduled for a fight that goes beyond 8 rounds. Whilst Weber is 5-0 (0) in fights that have gone 8 rounds so far in his career he has been lucky and could very easily have had 3 losses on his record from those fights, so it's fair to imagine a 12 round bout will be a whole new experience to him.
Despite the fact that on paper neither guy is a real puncher with 26 knock out wins between them in 58 fights it's the distance that makes me interested in the very few value bets on the bout as Ladbrokes are offering 9/20 on the bout not going the full distance. Oddly this is priced better than Stieglitz by DQ/TKO/KO which is 4/9 also at Ladbrokes. For a bit more value however I rather like the price on under 10.5 rounds, again with Ladbrokes, this is priced at 8/11. Whilst Stieglitz isn't a monster puncher he works very hard through his bouts and I can't help but feel he will over-whelm his inexperienced opponent at some point in the point, probably a little earlier than round 8 in all honesty, but I'll stick with what I have.
Bets-
Outright-Avoid (Odds are untouchable)
Others-fight to go less than 10.5 rounds 8/11 (Ladbrokes) and fight not to go the distance 9/20 (Ladbrokes)
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