The first world title fight of the year sees the WBO Super Middleweight champion Robert Stieglitz defending his title against little known Henry Weber. I previewed this fight for the sister site Boxing World Title Fight's, but now comes the gambling tips for the bout, which are sadly pretty difficult due to the fact that on paper the fight is a complete mismatch that should make any champion blush.
30 year old Stiegltiz (40-2, 23) comes to the bout as an unbackable favourite priced around 1/20 and with good reason because he is experienced, he's a world champion and despite the fact he's often ignored when we talk about the Super Middleweight elite he is genuinely very good. In fact looking at various rankings Stiegltiz is universally accepted as a top 10 Super Middleweight (Ring Magazine and Boxrec have him at #4 whilst Fightnews have him at #5) and he has faced a decent caliber of opponents with wins over Alejandro Berrio (TKO11), Karoly Balzsay (TKO11), Eduard Gutknecht (UD12), Enrique Ornelas (UD12) and Khoren Gevor (DQ10) and losses only coming to Berrio (LTKO3) and Librado Andrade (LTKO8).
When you then look at the record of the unbeaten challenger Henry Weber (15-0-1, 3) you notice a lot of things. Firstly is the fact Weber was very lucky to win his last fight when he took a controversial split decision over Stjepan Bozic then you notice that Bozic is the only "known" fighter on Weber's record. Thing's are worrying when the best opponent is Bozic and he almost beats you but it gets worse for the challenger. Firstly of course he's taking a big step up in class but this will also be the first time Weber will be scheduled for a fight that goes beyond 8 rounds. Whilst Weber is 5-0 (0) in fights that have gone 8 rounds so far in his career he has been lucky and could very easily have had 3 losses on his record from those fights, so it's fair to imagine a 12 round bout will be a whole new experience to him.
Despite the fact that on paper neither guy is a real puncher with 26 knock out wins between them in 58 fights it's the distance that makes me interested in the very few value bets on the bout as Ladbrokes are offering 9/20 on the bout not going the full distance. Oddly this is priced better than Stieglitz by DQ/TKO/KO which is 4/9 also at Ladbrokes. For a bit more value however I rather like the price on under 10.5 rounds, again with Ladbrokes, this is priced at 8/11. Whilst Stieglitz isn't a monster puncher he works very hard through his bouts and I can't help but feel he will over-whelm his inexperienced opponent at some point in the point, probably a little earlier than round 8 in all honesty, but I'll stick with what I have.
Bets-
Outright-Avoid (Odds are untouchable)
Others-fight to go less than 10.5 rounds 8/11 (Ladbrokes) and fight not to go the distance 9/20 (Ladbrokes)
Showing posts with label Super Middleweight. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Super Middleweight. Show all posts
Monday, 9 January 2012
Sunday, 8 January 2012
January 14th Arthur Abraham v Pablo Oscar Natalio Farias
"King" Arthur Abraham (32-3, 26) may have failed to live up to his promise in the Super 6 Boxing Classic tournament though he now begins his rebuilding process as he takes on Argentinian Pablo Oscar Natalio Farias (19-1, 11). This fight will be aired on ARD in Germany and is also expected to be aired on BoxNation in the UK is one of the bouts on Baden-Arena card that also features Robert Stieglitz's WBO Super Middleweight title defence against Henry Weber.
Boxing fans the world around know about Arthur Abraham. The former IBF Middleweight champion is a very respectable puncher who has genuinely devastating power in his shots and may well have been the hardest hitting fighter pound for pound on the planet over the past few years. He was, prior to going into the Super 6 an unbeaten fighter with a record of 30-0 (24 KO's) though we found out during the tournament that he wasn't suited to facing bigger men who could often use their reach to keep him out of harms way and off balance. However we don't really know that much about his Argentinian opponent who despite boasting a "respectful" record hasn't beaten anyone of note in in his 20 bouts. In fact unless you avidly follow the Argentinian boxing scene you'll have never seen Farias in your life, so here is a low down on the man known as "Pokémon":
Born in Junín, Buenos Aires the 24 year old is a fighter who has fought mostly between Super Middleweight and Light Heavyweight. He has fought professionally since 2008 when he out pointed the then unbeaten Dario German Balmaceda. Despite fighting around Super Middleweight and Light Heavyweight he's actually a very short man stocky fighter who is maybe 5'8" and seemed to be giving away noticeable height to his last opponent Jose Clavero (who is around 5'10" himself).
In his fight with Clavero (who was a former world title challenger) Farias was dropped in the opening round and made to look very poor as he often swung wildly opening himself to counters from his experienced opponent. As well as looking wild and wide he also appeared worryingly slow and defensively naive against the 36 year old Clavero (who is now a days little more than a journeyman) who simply seemed to walk him down. Oddly in that fight Farias suffered his first loss as he landed his best shot after the referee called break and knocked out Clavero with a foul, resulting in a disqualification loss against his name. Rather ironically both Farias and Abraham suffered their first losses by DQ for cheap shots.
Whilst Farias might be technically "the bigger man" in the fact he has fought at a higher weight he certainly won't look like a much bigger man against the heavily built Abraham who is genuinely a thickly set fighter. For Clavero he needs to really fear the power of Abraham who will hit significantly harder than anyone he has ever faced. For Abraham however he has little to worry about in terms of his rival, his biggest worries may be mental scars from losing 3 of his last 4.
Although Abraham is far from perfect with a very lazy style he is also very talented, very defensively cute and as mentioned very hard hitting. If Farias is going to fight as openly as he did against Clavero I have no doubt this fight finishes when ever Abraham wants it to. If I'm in Abraham's boots I will allow the fight to go a few rounds, try and get some confidence back before finishing the fight whenever I wish. So this brings us to my bets, Abraham by TKO/KO/DQ is 3/10 (Ladbrokes) is what I would view as free money personally if it wasn't for what I have also seen (see the below). I'd perhaps wait a few days and see if anyone else opens up this market and try and pounce on whatever is on offer. Although I feel Abraham could finish the bout when he wants, I do feel it will be after a few rounds, so I'll also be putting a sneaky bet on Abraham 5-8 at odds of around 9/4 (again with Ladbrokes). Sadly the odds on the outright market are untouchable with Abraham being around 1/20 though it's nice to see that there is some money to be made on the stoppage.
Now I said I'd seen something better than free money, and it's the incredibly nice 1/2 Ladbrokes are offering on the fight to go LESS than 10.5 rounds. Farias has only gone 10 rounds on 3 occasions in his whilst Abraham has only been taken that far by genuinely tough opponents. If you want a banker this is it!
Bets-
Outright-Avoid (Odds are untouchable)
Others-Abraham by TKO/KO/DQ 1/3 (Ladbrokes), Abraham rounds 5-8 9/4 (Ladbrokes), fight to go less than 10.5 rounds 1/2 (Ladbrokes)
Boxing fans the world around know about Arthur Abraham. The former IBF Middleweight champion is a very respectable puncher who has genuinely devastating power in his shots and may well have been the hardest hitting fighter pound for pound on the planet over the past few years. He was, prior to going into the Super 6 an unbeaten fighter with a record of 30-0 (24 KO's) though we found out during the tournament that he wasn't suited to facing bigger men who could often use their reach to keep him out of harms way and off balance. However we don't really know that much about his Argentinian opponent who despite boasting a "respectful" record hasn't beaten anyone of note in in his 20 bouts. In fact unless you avidly follow the Argentinian boxing scene you'll have never seen Farias in your life, so here is a low down on the man known as "Pokémon":
Born in Junín, Buenos Aires the 24 year old is a fighter who has fought mostly between Super Middleweight and Light Heavyweight. He has fought professionally since 2008 when he out pointed the then unbeaten Dario German Balmaceda. Despite fighting around Super Middleweight and Light Heavyweight he's actually a very short man stocky fighter who is maybe 5'8" and seemed to be giving away noticeable height to his last opponent Jose Clavero (who is around 5'10" himself).
In his fight with Clavero (who was a former world title challenger) Farias was dropped in the opening round and made to look very poor as he often swung wildly opening himself to counters from his experienced opponent. As well as looking wild and wide he also appeared worryingly slow and defensively naive against the 36 year old Clavero (who is now a days little more than a journeyman) who simply seemed to walk him down. Oddly in that fight Farias suffered his first loss as he landed his best shot after the referee called break and knocked out Clavero with a foul, resulting in a disqualification loss against his name. Rather ironically both Farias and Abraham suffered their first losses by DQ for cheap shots.
Whilst Farias might be technically "the bigger man" in the fact he has fought at a higher weight he certainly won't look like a much bigger man against the heavily built Abraham who is genuinely a thickly set fighter. For Clavero he needs to really fear the power of Abraham who will hit significantly harder than anyone he has ever faced. For Abraham however he has little to worry about in terms of his rival, his biggest worries may be mental scars from losing 3 of his last 4.
Although Abraham is far from perfect with a very lazy style he is also very talented, very defensively cute and as mentioned very hard hitting. If Farias is going to fight as openly as he did against Clavero I have no doubt this fight finishes when ever Abraham wants it to. If I'm in Abraham's boots I will allow the fight to go a few rounds, try and get some confidence back before finishing the fight whenever I wish. So this brings us to my bets, Abraham by TKO/KO/DQ is 3/10 (Ladbrokes) is what I would view as free money personally if it wasn't for what I have also seen (see the below). I'd perhaps wait a few days and see if anyone else opens up this market and try and pounce on whatever is on offer. Although I feel Abraham could finish the bout when he wants, I do feel it will be after a few rounds, so I'll also be putting a sneaky bet on Abraham 5-8 at odds of around 9/4 (again with Ladbrokes). Sadly the odds on the outright market are untouchable with Abraham being around 1/20 though it's nice to see that there is some money to be made on the stoppage.
Now I said I'd seen something better than free money, and it's the incredibly nice 1/2 Ladbrokes are offering on the fight to go LESS than 10.5 rounds. Farias has only gone 10 rounds on 3 occasions in his whilst Abraham has only been taken that far by genuinely tough opponents. If you want a banker this is it!
Bets-
Outright-Avoid (Odds are untouchable)
Others-Abraham by TKO/KO/DQ 1/3 (Ladbrokes), Abraham rounds 5-8 9/4 (Ladbrokes), fight to go less than 10.5 rounds 1/2 (Ladbrokes)
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