The first world title fight of the year sees the WBO Super Middleweight champion Robert Stieglitz defending his title against little known Henry Weber. I previewed this fight for the sister site Boxing World Title Fight's, but now comes the gambling tips for the bout, which are sadly pretty difficult due to the fact that on paper the fight is a complete mismatch that should make any champion blush.
30 year old Stiegltiz (40-2, 23) comes to the bout as an unbackable favourite priced around 1/20 and with good reason because he is experienced, he's a world champion and despite the fact he's often ignored when we talk about the Super Middleweight elite he is genuinely very good. In fact looking at various rankings Stiegltiz is universally accepted as a top 10 Super Middleweight (Ring Magazine and Boxrec have him at #4 whilst Fightnews have him at #5) and he has faced a decent caliber of opponents with wins over Alejandro Berrio (TKO11), Karoly Balzsay (TKO11), Eduard Gutknecht (UD12), Enrique Ornelas (UD12) and Khoren Gevor (DQ10) and losses only coming to Berrio (LTKO3) and Librado Andrade (LTKO8).
When you then look at the record of the unbeaten challenger Henry Weber (15-0-1, 3) you notice a lot of things. Firstly is the fact Weber was very lucky to win his last fight when he took a controversial split decision over Stjepan Bozic then you notice that Bozic is the only "known" fighter on Weber's record. Thing's are worrying when the best opponent is Bozic and he almost beats you but it gets worse for the challenger. Firstly of course he's taking a big step up in class but this will also be the first time Weber will be scheduled for a fight that goes beyond 8 rounds. Whilst Weber is 5-0 (0) in fights that have gone 8 rounds so far in his career he has been lucky and could very easily have had 3 losses on his record from those fights, so it's fair to imagine a 12 round bout will be a whole new experience to him.
Despite the fact that on paper neither guy is a real puncher with 26 knock out wins between them in 58 fights it's the distance that makes me interested in the very few value bets on the bout as Ladbrokes are offering 9/20 on the bout not going the full distance. Oddly this is priced better than Stieglitz by DQ/TKO/KO which is 4/9 also at Ladbrokes. For a bit more value however I rather like the price on under 10.5 rounds, again with Ladbrokes, this is priced at 8/11. Whilst Stieglitz isn't a monster puncher he works very hard through his bouts and I can't help but feel he will over-whelm his inexperienced opponent at some point in the point, probably a little earlier than round 8 in all honesty, but I'll stick with what I have.
Bets-
Outright-Avoid (Odds are untouchable)
Others-fight to go less than 10.5 rounds 8/11 (Ladbrokes) and fight not to go the distance 9/20 (Ladbrokes)
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