Wednesday, 18 January 2012

January 20th Rico Ramos v Guillermo Rigondeaux

I didn't do very well in the last world title fight I looked at (going 0/2 in the Robert Stieglitz v Henry Weber fight) so hopefully this will be a bit more successful. This fight sees the WBA's "Interim" and "Regular" Super Bantamweight champions meeting in a bout that will be shown on ShoBox in the US and Premier Sports in the UK. Both fighters come into the bout with unbeaten records with Ramos holding a ledger of 20-0 (11) and Rigondeaux being 8-0 (6) though of course Rigondeaux has had over 400 amateur bouts and is a 2 time Olympic Gold Medal winner.

Whilst on paper Ramos doesn't look much like a puncher his power isn't actually that bad and with KO's over Akifumi Shimoda (KO7) and Heriberto Ruiz (KO2) in 2 of his last 3 bouts he can genuinely hit. It's worth noting he was the first man to stop Shimoda and is one of only 5 men to stop Ruiz (a list that includes Rafael Marquez, Alejandro Valdez, Jackson Asiku and Gary Russell Jr). Oddly Rigondeaux probably doesn't have the power to match his record having mainly stopped lower tier fighters or significantly lesser skilled fighters such as Willie Casey. Despite both of these facts I wouldn't flat out rule out a stoppage at some point due to a TKO if Rigondeaux decides to make a point.

On a skill level we've seen Ramos out boxed before, Shimoda was controlling the American with his jab and looked completely out of his depth for most of the fight. When it comes to Rigondeaux he has an amazing jab when he uses it, he's incredibly patient and massively skilled, he judges distances perfectly and has some wonderful timing that he uses fantastically to counter. Ramos will know that if he leaves himself open he will be caught by a sharp counter left hand and hurt so will likely want to keep the pace slow to not leave himself open, for me this will be favouring Rigondeaux almost as much as opening up.

Whilst I wouldn't rule out the fight not going 12 rounds I do tend to favour that a stoppage will be later in the fight if at all. Rigondeaux scoring a stoppage in rounds 7-9 and 10-12 can be "dutched" at 4/1 (both are 8/1 with Bet365) which looks pretty good if you ask me and certainly beats the evens offered on Rigondeaux winning by TKO/KO or DQ at any point (11/10 with Betfred).

The real bet for me is the 2/5 (Betfred and Tote Sport) on Rigondeaux winning outright as I cannot see anyway for Ramos to win. Whilst Rigondeaux didn't look great in beating Ricardo Cordoba it's unfair to Cordoba to put Ramos up there with him as Cordoba had more experience, was taller as well as being a tricky and hard hitting southpaw. For me the fight to look at to show how this bout will be is the Shimoda fight where Ramos was being clearly beaten before landing one of the most important punches of 2011.

A full preview of this bout can be read here on Boxing World Title Fights.

Bets-
Outright-Rigondeaux 2/5 (Betfred and Tote Sport)
Others-Rigondeaux to win in rounds 7-9 and 10-12 8/1 on each (4/1 if Dutched)

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