In the first fight we are looking at here on Boxing's Gambling Guide we see two British Heavyweights who look to re-ignite their careers after recent set backs. In one corner we have Sam Sexton (14-2, 6) whilst his opponent will be feared puncher Larry Olubamiwo (10-2, 9) in a fight that promises fireworks and will be shown exclusive on BoxNation in the United Kingdom.
As previously mentioned both fighters are looking to re-establish themselves amongst the mix in the British heavyweight scene after suffering notable recent losses. Sexton was defeated 2 fights ago by Dereck "Del Boy" Chisora in 9 rounds (way back in September 2010) and has only beaten journeyman Remigijus Ziausys since that loss. Olubamiwo on the other hand lost his most recent fight being stopped in the opening round against British stalwart John McDermott. The loser of this bout really is looking at retirement in all honesty which is what makes it such an intriguing bout, but how will it break down?
Whilst I am sure most fight fans would agree that Larry "The War Machine" Olubamiwo is by far the more powerful man (he's literally built like a tank) they may also be somewhat concerned about his toughness after being blitzed out against McDermott in one of the most 1 sided heavyweight classes on British TV in the last few years. Like wise Sexton doesn't hit particularly hard and is giving away natural size to the powerfully built Olubamiwo. Physically Olubamiwo is a beast whilst Sexton often appears to carry a bit of extra weight around his waist. Oddly despite very different physiques both men suffer from an identical flaw, questionable stamina. Interestingly both men have registered just 1 win a piece beyond 7 rounds, though Sexton has had to fight by far more rounds per fight (5.3) than Olubamiwo (2.6).
At 33 Larry is the older man (Sexton is just 27) though neither man has much "ring age" on them with Sexton having had 85 rounds as opposed to Olubamiwo's 31. Whilst Larry may technically be older Sexton is the more experienced fighter in terms of both fights and rounds fought though 15 of those rounds Sexton has faced have been in losing efforts (both to Chisora). We can pretty fairly say that Sexton has fought a better level of opponent than Olubamiwo with the likes of Chisora and Martin Rogan both meeting him in the ring, though when it comes to their only mutual opponent Olubamiwo has fared better. Both fighters have faced Colin Kenna with Sexton needing 6 rounds to stop him whilst Larry needed less than 1 complete round.
The first bet I like the look of is for the fight to not go the distance, not only do both fighters have poor stamina, they also have questionable punch resistance whilst each hit respectably (Larry, as said, hits harder). So if you can odds on the fight to not go the distance this would be a safe bet.
For the outright market Sexton is priced around 3/10 to win by any means, for my money this isn't a great bet. Whilst I do favour Sexton out of the two I'd arguably say that Sexton should be nearer 4/6 than 3/10 as Larry has a very real chance of landing an early shot that takes it all from Sexton. If Sexton is going to win he will have to see out 2 rounds of pressure first and this may not be as easy as some think against a man dubbed "The War Machine". If Olubamiwo manages to land a single solid shot it may very easily rattle Sexton who will have to recover very swiftly. If however Sexton can make it to the 3rd round I can see him comfortably breaking down Olubamiwo before forcing a stoppage around the middle rounds.
Bets-
Outright-Avoid
Others-Fight Not To Go Distance
*At time of writing only market available is the outright.
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