After last weeks all English title fight between Sam Sexton and Larry Olubamiwo we have another interesting all English clash as Olympic bronze medal winner David Price (11-0, 9) faces the experienced John McDermott (26-7, 17) in a fight for the English Heavyweight title. This one promises a lot and has been one of the Heavyweight clashes that everyone in Britain has been looking forward to for a while as it not only gives us a marker as to how good Price is but it is also the chance for McDermott to take another notable scalp after defeating Larry Olubamiwo last year.
McDermott is the big underdog in the bout but he has been in most of his bouts as he's effectively become Britain's most under-rated fighter, due in part to his record which some may feel should read 30-3 (17) as many of his losses have been hotly debated (the 2 Danny Williams fights, the first Tyson Fury fight and the Mark Krence fight). He is a very hard working fighter who despite a doughy figure has a solid engine and work rate as well as being technically very solid even if he's not spectacular. On the flipside however is the fact that "Big Bad John" can be hurt (having been stopped 3 times), he does give away a lot of height to price (around 5" in this fight) and will giving away reach and maybe more importantly he has fought in 11 long months. In fact McDermott has only fought a single round in 18 months which really is a worry.
Price on the other hand has been more active in the last year and has also been stepping up through the levels well with many feeling he's the best active Heavyweight in the UK. Stood at 6'8" Price is a fighting giant and will tower over McDermott and Price has found a way, so far to use his height and reach to keep opponents at bay whilst looking for a chance to land his straight right hand (which for my money is the hardest punch in Britain by a long way). Whilst he may not be the hardest worker in the ring he does fight intelligently using his size and skills well and has so far protected his suspect chin incredibly well. With wins in 2011 over the likes of Raphael Butler and Tom Dallas it's fair to say Price is on the right and his promoter is certainly well behind him and will have a lot of confidence in the confident Scouser to pick up the W here, though at 1/6 he's hard to back outright.
The key to betting here is likely looking at the fact McDermott has been stopped 3 times in his career already and Price is certainly a hard puncher so the 4/11 offered by a number of book makers for Price to win inside the distance may be worth a punt. I'd personally look more at the over/unders though and maybe the tastiest is Evens on under 6.5 rounds offered by Ladbrokes.
Bets:
Outright-No bet
Others-Price by KO/TKO/DQ 4/11, Under 6.5 rounds Evens.
Wednesday, 18 January 2012
January 20th Rico Ramos v Guillermo Rigondeaux
I didn't do very well in the last world title fight I looked at (going 0/2 in the Robert Stieglitz v Henry Weber fight) so hopefully this will be a bit more successful. This fight sees the WBA's "Interim" and "Regular" Super Bantamweight champions meeting in a bout that will be shown on ShoBox in the US and Premier Sports in the UK. Both fighters come into the bout with unbeaten records with Ramos holding a ledger of 20-0 (11) and Rigondeaux being 8-0 (6) though of course Rigondeaux has had over 400 amateur bouts and is a 2 time Olympic Gold Medal winner.
Whilst on paper Ramos doesn't look much like a puncher his power isn't actually that bad and with KO's over Akifumi Shimoda (KO7) and Heriberto Ruiz (KO2) in 2 of his last 3 bouts he can genuinely hit. It's worth noting he was the first man to stop Shimoda and is one of only 5 men to stop Ruiz (a list that includes Rafael Marquez, Alejandro Valdez, Jackson Asiku and Gary Russell Jr). Oddly Rigondeaux probably doesn't have the power to match his record having mainly stopped lower tier fighters or significantly lesser skilled fighters such as Willie Casey. Despite both of these facts I wouldn't flat out rule out a stoppage at some point due to a TKO if Rigondeaux decides to make a point.
On a skill level we've seen Ramos out boxed before, Shimoda was controlling the American with his jab and looked completely out of his depth for most of the fight. When it comes to Rigondeaux he has an amazing jab when he uses it, he's incredibly patient and massively skilled, he judges distances perfectly and has some wonderful timing that he uses fantastically to counter. Ramos will know that if he leaves himself open he will be caught by a sharp counter left hand and hurt so will likely want to keep the pace slow to not leave himself open, for me this will be favouring Rigondeaux almost as much as opening up.
Whilst I wouldn't rule out the fight not going 12 rounds I do tend to favour that a stoppage will be later in the fight if at all. Rigondeaux scoring a stoppage in rounds 7-9 and 10-12 can be "dutched" at 4/1 (both are 8/1 with Bet365) which looks pretty good if you ask me and certainly beats the evens offered on Rigondeaux winning by TKO/KO or DQ at any point (11/10 with Betfred).
The real bet for me is the 2/5 (Betfred and Tote Sport) on Rigondeaux winning outright as I cannot see anyway for Ramos to win. Whilst Rigondeaux didn't look great in beating Ricardo Cordoba it's unfair to Cordoba to put Ramos up there with him as Cordoba had more experience, was taller as well as being a tricky and hard hitting southpaw. For me the fight to look at to show how this bout will be is the Shimoda fight where Ramos was being clearly beaten before landing one of the most important punches of 2011.
A full preview of this bout can be read here on Boxing World Title Fights.
Bets-
Outright-Rigondeaux 2/5 (Betfred and Tote Sport)
Others-Rigondeaux to win in rounds 7-9 and 10-12 8/1 on each (4/1 if Dutched)
Whilst on paper Ramos doesn't look much like a puncher his power isn't actually that bad and with KO's over Akifumi Shimoda (KO7) and Heriberto Ruiz (KO2) in 2 of his last 3 bouts he can genuinely hit. It's worth noting he was the first man to stop Shimoda and is one of only 5 men to stop Ruiz (a list that includes Rafael Marquez, Alejandro Valdez, Jackson Asiku and Gary Russell Jr). Oddly Rigondeaux probably doesn't have the power to match his record having mainly stopped lower tier fighters or significantly lesser skilled fighters such as Willie Casey. Despite both of these facts I wouldn't flat out rule out a stoppage at some point due to a TKO if Rigondeaux decides to make a point.
On a skill level we've seen Ramos out boxed before, Shimoda was controlling the American with his jab and looked completely out of his depth for most of the fight. When it comes to Rigondeaux he has an amazing jab when he uses it, he's incredibly patient and massively skilled, he judges distances perfectly and has some wonderful timing that he uses fantastically to counter. Ramos will know that if he leaves himself open he will be caught by a sharp counter left hand and hurt so will likely want to keep the pace slow to not leave himself open, for me this will be favouring Rigondeaux almost as much as opening up.
Whilst I wouldn't rule out the fight not going 12 rounds I do tend to favour that a stoppage will be later in the fight if at all. Rigondeaux scoring a stoppage in rounds 7-9 and 10-12 can be "dutched" at 4/1 (both are 8/1 with Bet365) which looks pretty good if you ask me and certainly beats the evens offered on Rigondeaux winning by TKO/KO or DQ at any point (11/10 with Betfred).
The real bet for me is the 2/5 (Betfred and Tote Sport) on Rigondeaux winning outright as I cannot see anyway for Ramos to win. Whilst Rigondeaux didn't look great in beating Ricardo Cordoba it's unfair to Cordoba to put Ramos up there with him as Cordoba had more experience, was taller as well as being a tricky and hard hitting southpaw. For me the fight to look at to show how this bout will be is the Shimoda fight where Ramos was being clearly beaten before landing one of the most important punches of 2011.
A full preview of this bout can be read here on Boxing World Title Fights.
Bets-
Outright-Rigondeaux 2/5 (Betfred and Tote Sport)
Others-Rigondeaux to win in rounds 7-9 and 10-12 8/1 on each (4/1 if Dutched)
Monday, 9 January 2012
January 14th Robert Stieglitz v Henry Weber
The first world title fight of the year sees the WBO Super Middleweight champion Robert Stieglitz defending his title against little known Henry Weber. I previewed this fight for the sister site Boxing World Title Fight's, but now comes the gambling tips for the bout, which are sadly pretty difficult due to the fact that on paper the fight is a complete mismatch that should make any champion blush.
30 year old Stiegltiz (40-2, 23) comes to the bout as an unbackable favourite priced around 1/20 and with good reason because he is experienced, he's a world champion and despite the fact he's often ignored when we talk about the Super Middleweight elite he is genuinely very good. In fact looking at various rankings Stiegltiz is universally accepted as a top 10 Super Middleweight (Ring Magazine and Boxrec have him at #4 whilst Fightnews have him at #5) and he has faced a decent caliber of opponents with wins over Alejandro Berrio (TKO11), Karoly Balzsay (TKO11), Eduard Gutknecht (UD12), Enrique Ornelas (UD12) and Khoren Gevor (DQ10) and losses only coming to Berrio (LTKO3) and Librado Andrade (LTKO8).
When you then look at the record of the unbeaten challenger Henry Weber (15-0-1, 3) you notice a lot of things. Firstly is the fact Weber was very lucky to win his last fight when he took a controversial split decision over Stjepan Bozic then you notice that Bozic is the only "known" fighter on Weber's record. Thing's are worrying when the best opponent is Bozic and he almost beats you but it gets worse for the challenger. Firstly of course he's taking a big step up in class but this will also be the first time Weber will be scheduled for a fight that goes beyond 8 rounds. Whilst Weber is 5-0 (0) in fights that have gone 8 rounds so far in his career he has been lucky and could very easily have had 3 losses on his record from those fights, so it's fair to imagine a 12 round bout will be a whole new experience to him.
Despite the fact that on paper neither guy is a real puncher with 26 knock out wins between them in 58 fights it's the distance that makes me interested in the very few value bets on the bout as Ladbrokes are offering 9/20 on the bout not going the full distance. Oddly this is priced better than Stieglitz by DQ/TKO/KO which is 4/9 also at Ladbrokes. For a bit more value however I rather like the price on under 10.5 rounds, again with Ladbrokes, this is priced at 8/11. Whilst Stieglitz isn't a monster puncher he works very hard through his bouts and I can't help but feel he will over-whelm his inexperienced opponent at some point in the point, probably a little earlier than round 8 in all honesty, but I'll stick with what I have.
Bets-
Outright-Avoid (Odds are untouchable)
Others-fight to go less than 10.5 rounds 8/11 (Ladbrokes) and fight not to go the distance 9/20 (Ladbrokes)
30 year old Stiegltiz (40-2, 23) comes to the bout as an unbackable favourite priced around 1/20 and with good reason because he is experienced, he's a world champion and despite the fact he's often ignored when we talk about the Super Middleweight elite he is genuinely very good. In fact looking at various rankings Stiegltiz is universally accepted as a top 10 Super Middleweight (Ring Magazine and Boxrec have him at #4 whilst Fightnews have him at #5) and he has faced a decent caliber of opponents with wins over Alejandro Berrio (TKO11), Karoly Balzsay (TKO11), Eduard Gutknecht (UD12), Enrique Ornelas (UD12) and Khoren Gevor (DQ10) and losses only coming to Berrio (LTKO3) and Librado Andrade (LTKO8).
When you then look at the record of the unbeaten challenger Henry Weber (15-0-1, 3) you notice a lot of things. Firstly is the fact Weber was very lucky to win his last fight when he took a controversial split decision over Stjepan Bozic then you notice that Bozic is the only "known" fighter on Weber's record. Thing's are worrying when the best opponent is Bozic and he almost beats you but it gets worse for the challenger. Firstly of course he's taking a big step up in class but this will also be the first time Weber will be scheduled for a fight that goes beyond 8 rounds. Whilst Weber is 5-0 (0) in fights that have gone 8 rounds so far in his career he has been lucky and could very easily have had 3 losses on his record from those fights, so it's fair to imagine a 12 round bout will be a whole new experience to him.
Despite the fact that on paper neither guy is a real puncher with 26 knock out wins between them in 58 fights it's the distance that makes me interested in the very few value bets on the bout as Ladbrokes are offering 9/20 on the bout not going the full distance. Oddly this is priced better than Stieglitz by DQ/TKO/KO which is 4/9 also at Ladbrokes. For a bit more value however I rather like the price on under 10.5 rounds, again with Ladbrokes, this is priced at 8/11. Whilst Stieglitz isn't a monster puncher he works very hard through his bouts and I can't help but feel he will over-whelm his inexperienced opponent at some point in the point, probably a little earlier than round 8 in all honesty, but I'll stick with what I have.
Bets-
Outright-Avoid (Odds are untouchable)
Others-fight to go less than 10.5 rounds 8/11 (Ladbrokes) and fight not to go the distance 9/20 (Ladbrokes)
Sunday, 8 January 2012
January 14th Arthur Abraham v Pablo Oscar Natalio Farias
"King" Arthur Abraham (32-3, 26) may have failed to live up to his promise in the Super 6 Boxing Classic tournament though he now begins his rebuilding process as he takes on Argentinian Pablo Oscar Natalio Farias (19-1, 11). This fight will be aired on ARD in Germany and is also expected to be aired on BoxNation in the UK is one of the bouts on Baden-Arena card that also features Robert Stieglitz's WBO Super Middleweight title defence against Henry Weber.
Boxing fans the world around know about Arthur Abraham. The former IBF Middleweight champion is a very respectable puncher who has genuinely devastating power in his shots and may well have been the hardest hitting fighter pound for pound on the planet over the past few years. He was, prior to going into the Super 6 an unbeaten fighter with a record of 30-0 (24 KO's) though we found out during the tournament that he wasn't suited to facing bigger men who could often use their reach to keep him out of harms way and off balance. However we don't really know that much about his Argentinian opponent who despite boasting a "respectful" record hasn't beaten anyone of note in in his 20 bouts. In fact unless you avidly follow the Argentinian boxing scene you'll have never seen Farias in your life, so here is a low down on the man known as "Pokémon":
Born in Junín, Buenos Aires the 24 year old is a fighter who has fought mostly between Super Middleweight and Light Heavyweight. He has fought professionally since 2008 when he out pointed the then unbeaten Dario German Balmaceda. Despite fighting around Super Middleweight and Light Heavyweight he's actually a very short man stocky fighter who is maybe 5'8" and seemed to be giving away noticeable height to his last opponent Jose Clavero (who is around 5'10" himself).
In his fight with Clavero (who was a former world title challenger) Farias was dropped in the opening round and made to look very poor as he often swung wildly opening himself to counters from his experienced opponent. As well as looking wild and wide he also appeared worryingly slow and defensively naive against the 36 year old Clavero (who is now a days little more than a journeyman) who simply seemed to walk him down. Oddly in that fight Farias suffered his first loss as he landed his best shot after the referee called break and knocked out Clavero with a foul, resulting in a disqualification loss against his name. Rather ironically both Farias and Abraham suffered their first losses by DQ for cheap shots.
Whilst Farias might be technically "the bigger man" in the fact he has fought at a higher weight he certainly won't look like a much bigger man against the heavily built Abraham who is genuinely a thickly set fighter. For Clavero he needs to really fear the power of Abraham who will hit significantly harder than anyone he has ever faced. For Abraham however he has little to worry about in terms of his rival, his biggest worries may be mental scars from losing 3 of his last 4.
Although Abraham is far from perfect with a very lazy style he is also very talented, very defensively cute and as mentioned very hard hitting. If Farias is going to fight as openly as he did against Clavero I have no doubt this fight finishes when ever Abraham wants it to. If I'm in Abraham's boots I will allow the fight to go a few rounds, try and get some confidence back before finishing the fight whenever I wish. So this brings us to my bets, Abraham by TKO/KO/DQ is 3/10 (Ladbrokes) is what I would view as free money personally if it wasn't for what I have also seen (see the below). I'd perhaps wait a few days and see if anyone else opens up this market and try and pounce on whatever is on offer. Although I feel Abraham could finish the bout when he wants, I do feel it will be after a few rounds, so I'll also be putting a sneaky bet on Abraham 5-8 at odds of around 9/4 (again with Ladbrokes). Sadly the odds on the outright market are untouchable with Abraham being around 1/20 though it's nice to see that there is some money to be made on the stoppage.
Now I said I'd seen something better than free money, and it's the incredibly nice 1/2 Ladbrokes are offering on the fight to go LESS than 10.5 rounds. Farias has only gone 10 rounds on 3 occasions in his whilst Abraham has only been taken that far by genuinely tough opponents. If you want a banker this is it!
Bets-
Outright-Avoid (Odds are untouchable)
Others-Abraham by TKO/KO/DQ 1/3 (Ladbrokes), Abraham rounds 5-8 9/4 (Ladbrokes), fight to go less than 10.5 rounds 1/2 (Ladbrokes)
Boxing fans the world around know about Arthur Abraham. The former IBF Middleweight champion is a very respectable puncher who has genuinely devastating power in his shots and may well have been the hardest hitting fighter pound for pound on the planet over the past few years. He was, prior to going into the Super 6 an unbeaten fighter with a record of 30-0 (24 KO's) though we found out during the tournament that he wasn't suited to facing bigger men who could often use their reach to keep him out of harms way and off balance. However we don't really know that much about his Argentinian opponent who despite boasting a "respectful" record hasn't beaten anyone of note in in his 20 bouts. In fact unless you avidly follow the Argentinian boxing scene you'll have never seen Farias in your life, so here is a low down on the man known as "Pokémon":
Born in Junín, Buenos Aires the 24 year old is a fighter who has fought mostly between Super Middleweight and Light Heavyweight. He has fought professionally since 2008 when he out pointed the then unbeaten Dario German Balmaceda. Despite fighting around Super Middleweight and Light Heavyweight he's actually a very short man stocky fighter who is maybe 5'8" and seemed to be giving away noticeable height to his last opponent Jose Clavero (who is around 5'10" himself).
In his fight with Clavero (who was a former world title challenger) Farias was dropped in the opening round and made to look very poor as he often swung wildly opening himself to counters from his experienced opponent. As well as looking wild and wide he also appeared worryingly slow and defensively naive against the 36 year old Clavero (who is now a days little more than a journeyman) who simply seemed to walk him down. Oddly in that fight Farias suffered his first loss as he landed his best shot after the referee called break and knocked out Clavero with a foul, resulting in a disqualification loss against his name. Rather ironically both Farias and Abraham suffered their first losses by DQ for cheap shots.
Whilst Farias might be technically "the bigger man" in the fact he has fought at a higher weight he certainly won't look like a much bigger man against the heavily built Abraham who is genuinely a thickly set fighter. For Clavero he needs to really fear the power of Abraham who will hit significantly harder than anyone he has ever faced. For Abraham however he has little to worry about in terms of his rival, his biggest worries may be mental scars from losing 3 of his last 4.
Although Abraham is far from perfect with a very lazy style he is also very talented, very defensively cute and as mentioned very hard hitting. If Farias is going to fight as openly as he did against Clavero I have no doubt this fight finishes when ever Abraham wants it to. If I'm in Abraham's boots I will allow the fight to go a few rounds, try and get some confidence back before finishing the fight whenever I wish. So this brings us to my bets, Abraham by TKO/KO/DQ is 3/10 (Ladbrokes) is what I would view as free money personally if it wasn't for what I have also seen (see the below). I'd perhaps wait a few days and see if anyone else opens up this market and try and pounce on whatever is on offer. Although I feel Abraham could finish the bout when he wants, I do feel it will be after a few rounds, so I'll also be putting a sneaky bet on Abraham 5-8 at odds of around 9/4 (again with Ladbrokes). Sadly the odds on the outright market are untouchable with Abraham being around 1/20 though it's nice to see that there is some money to be made on the stoppage.
Now I said I'd seen something better than free money, and it's the incredibly nice 1/2 Ladbrokes are offering on the fight to go LESS than 10.5 rounds. Farias has only gone 10 rounds on 3 occasions in his whilst Abraham has only been taken that far by genuinely tough opponents. If you want a banker this is it!
Bets-
Outright-Avoid (Odds are untouchable)
Others-Abraham by TKO/KO/DQ 1/3 (Ladbrokes), Abraham rounds 5-8 9/4 (Ladbrokes), fight to go less than 10.5 rounds 1/2 (Ladbrokes)
January 13th Sam Sexton v Larry Olubamiwo
In the first fight we are looking at here on Boxing's Gambling Guide we see two British Heavyweights who look to re-ignite their careers after recent set backs. In one corner we have Sam Sexton (14-2, 6) whilst his opponent will be feared puncher Larry Olubamiwo (10-2, 9) in a fight that promises fireworks and will be shown exclusive on BoxNation in the United Kingdom.
As previously mentioned both fighters are looking to re-establish themselves amongst the mix in the British heavyweight scene after suffering notable recent losses. Sexton was defeated 2 fights ago by Dereck "Del Boy" Chisora in 9 rounds (way back in September 2010) and has only beaten journeyman Remigijus Ziausys since that loss. Olubamiwo on the other hand lost his most recent fight being stopped in the opening round against British stalwart John McDermott. The loser of this bout really is looking at retirement in all honesty which is what makes it such an intriguing bout, but how will it break down?
Whilst I am sure most fight fans would agree that Larry "The War Machine" Olubamiwo is by far the more powerful man (he's literally built like a tank) they may also be somewhat concerned about his toughness after being blitzed out against McDermott in one of the most 1 sided heavyweight classes on British TV in the last few years. Like wise Sexton doesn't hit particularly hard and is giving away natural size to the powerfully built Olubamiwo. Physically Olubamiwo is a beast whilst Sexton often appears to carry a bit of extra weight around his waist. Oddly despite very different physiques both men suffer from an identical flaw, questionable stamina. Interestingly both men have registered just 1 win a piece beyond 7 rounds, though Sexton has had to fight by far more rounds per fight (5.3) than Olubamiwo (2.6).
At 33 Larry is the older man (Sexton is just 27) though neither man has much "ring age" on them with Sexton having had 85 rounds as opposed to Olubamiwo's 31. Whilst Larry may technically be older Sexton is the more experienced fighter in terms of both fights and rounds fought though 15 of those rounds Sexton has faced have been in losing efforts (both to Chisora). We can pretty fairly say that Sexton has fought a better level of opponent than Olubamiwo with the likes of Chisora and Martin Rogan both meeting him in the ring, though when it comes to their only mutual opponent Olubamiwo has fared better. Both fighters have faced Colin Kenna with Sexton needing 6 rounds to stop him whilst Larry needed less than 1 complete round.
The first bet I like the look of is for the fight to not go the distance, not only do both fighters have poor stamina, they also have questionable punch resistance whilst each hit respectably (Larry, as said, hits harder). So if you can odds on the fight to not go the distance this would be a safe bet.
For the outright market Sexton is priced around 3/10 to win by any means, for my money this isn't a great bet. Whilst I do favour Sexton out of the two I'd arguably say that Sexton should be nearer 4/6 than 3/10 as Larry has a very real chance of landing an early shot that takes it all from Sexton. If Sexton is going to win he will have to see out 2 rounds of pressure first and this may not be as easy as some think against a man dubbed "The War Machine". If Olubamiwo manages to land a single solid shot it may very easily rattle Sexton who will have to recover very swiftly. If however Sexton can make it to the 3rd round I can see him comfortably breaking down Olubamiwo before forcing a stoppage around the middle rounds.
Bets-
Outright-Avoid
Others-Fight Not To Go Distance
*At time of writing only market available is the outright.
As previously mentioned both fighters are looking to re-establish themselves amongst the mix in the British heavyweight scene after suffering notable recent losses. Sexton was defeated 2 fights ago by Dereck "Del Boy" Chisora in 9 rounds (way back in September 2010) and has only beaten journeyman Remigijus Ziausys since that loss. Olubamiwo on the other hand lost his most recent fight being stopped in the opening round against British stalwart John McDermott. The loser of this bout really is looking at retirement in all honesty which is what makes it such an intriguing bout, but how will it break down?
Whilst I am sure most fight fans would agree that Larry "The War Machine" Olubamiwo is by far the more powerful man (he's literally built like a tank) they may also be somewhat concerned about his toughness after being blitzed out against McDermott in one of the most 1 sided heavyweight classes on British TV in the last few years. Like wise Sexton doesn't hit particularly hard and is giving away natural size to the powerfully built Olubamiwo. Physically Olubamiwo is a beast whilst Sexton often appears to carry a bit of extra weight around his waist. Oddly despite very different physiques both men suffer from an identical flaw, questionable stamina. Interestingly both men have registered just 1 win a piece beyond 7 rounds, though Sexton has had to fight by far more rounds per fight (5.3) than Olubamiwo (2.6).
At 33 Larry is the older man (Sexton is just 27) though neither man has much "ring age" on them with Sexton having had 85 rounds as opposed to Olubamiwo's 31. Whilst Larry may technically be older Sexton is the more experienced fighter in terms of both fights and rounds fought though 15 of those rounds Sexton has faced have been in losing efforts (both to Chisora). We can pretty fairly say that Sexton has fought a better level of opponent than Olubamiwo with the likes of Chisora and Martin Rogan both meeting him in the ring, though when it comes to their only mutual opponent Olubamiwo has fared better. Both fighters have faced Colin Kenna with Sexton needing 6 rounds to stop him whilst Larry needed less than 1 complete round.
The first bet I like the look of is for the fight to not go the distance, not only do both fighters have poor stamina, they also have questionable punch resistance whilst each hit respectably (Larry, as said, hits harder). So if you can odds on the fight to not go the distance this would be a safe bet.
For the outright market Sexton is priced around 3/10 to win by any means, for my money this isn't a great bet. Whilst I do favour Sexton out of the two I'd arguably say that Sexton should be nearer 4/6 than 3/10 as Larry has a very real chance of landing an early shot that takes it all from Sexton. If Sexton is going to win he will have to see out 2 rounds of pressure first and this may not be as easy as some think against a man dubbed "The War Machine". If Olubamiwo manages to land a single solid shot it may very easily rattle Sexton who will have to recover very swiftly. If however Sexton can make it to the 3rd round I can see him comfortably breaking down Olubamiwo before forcing a stoppage around the middle rounds.
Bets-
Outright-Avoid
Others-Fight Not To Go Distance
*At time of writing only market available is the outright.
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